Why has shrinkflation run rampant and when will it end? Plus, 11 startling examples (2024)

When people head to the grocery store these days, inflation isn’t the only thing affecting the price of their food. Shrinkflation has also taken centre stage in the last couple of years, as food manufacturers shrink the amount of food offered in a certain package but still charge the same price for the decreased offering.

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With the cost of food already on the rise, the practice of manufacturers offering less product for the same or even an increased price takes a further bite out of families’ grocery budget.

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“There are two things that upset consumers the most in the last three years,” says Canadian food policy expert Sylvain Charlebois.

“One is volume discounting; say, asking people to buy three loaves of bread for the price of two. People hate that when they live on their own. And the other thing is shrinkflation,” says Charlebois, who is director of the Agri-Food Analytics Lab at Dalhousie University and an accomplished researcher in the area of food distribution, security and safety.

Shrinkflation is indeed a concept that doesn’t sit well with many and that’s especially the case with consumer lawyer Edgar Dworsky, who created Consumer World — a non-commercial website that provides a myriad of consumer advice, scam alerts and money-saving tips. Lately, however, Dworsky — a former Massachusetts assistant attorney general in consumer protection — has become dogged in the pursuit of tracking down cases of shrinkflation.

Why are we seeing more cases of shrinkflation?

“Shrinkflation has been around for decades and decades. It tends to be cyclical,” Dworsky told Postmedia. “In times of high inflation we see more instances of it because manufacturers themselves are facing higher costs and they have to decide how to pass those costs on to shoppers.

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“They can choose to raise prices, reformulate the product with cheaper ingredients, shrink the product, or do nothing,” Dworsky says. “Many choose the shrinkflation route because they know shoppers are price sensitive and are more likely to notice a price increase and less likely to notice a size change.”

Why have consumers been experiencing a period of shrinkflation? Well, many manufacturers are facing increased operating costs. Shipping rates have skyrocketed. Labour costs have risen in some jurisdictions. And, most importantly, the raw ingredients needed to produce many items have increased in cost, too.

Charlebois, who began writing about shrinkflation almost a decade ago, says that the Russian invasion of Ukraine fuelled the current cycle of shrinkflation being experienced. The resulting war led to a shortage of wheat, driving up commodity prices, similar to the commodity price increase in 2008 that led to a cycle of shrinkflation at that time.

“We go through cycles and really it boils down to input costs for companies and manufacturers,” he says. “If costs go up, they (manufacturers) tend to look at different options like shrinkflation.”

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But is there a reason why this cycle of shrinkflation seems to be more pronounced? Charlebois notes that a large reason for this is that consumers are paying more attention to prices now than they were in past years.

“They weren’t attentive to what was going on with pricing and how perhaps the food industry was working to provide us with mirages or illusions that we were buying the same things,” he says. “(Now), consumers are pretty much on top of things and manufacturers.

“Back in 2008 during the last cycle of shrinkflation, manufacturers were able to get away with it,” he says. “But now, with everyone carrying a phone and a camera, they can just take pictures and we have this beautiful collective memory on social media allowing people to compare sizes of products over time. So, it’s becoming extremely difficult now for manufacturers to get away with it.”

“It really boils down to higher food prices and people being sensitive to the issue of costs and the cost of living for themselves,” says Charlebois, adding shrinkflation leaves some consumers feeling cheated or betrayed.

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How many cases of shrinkflation are out there and will it ever end?

Shrinkflation is still a concept that most manufacturers shrink away from discussing publicly, despite the fact that it commonly occurs and that consumers now notice. Because manufacturers tend to refrain from talking about their downsizing of products, it’s difficult to know exactly how much shrinkflation exists. To get an idea of the scope of the issue, a study by the Office for National Statistics in the U.K. showed 2,529 products decreased in size between 2012 and mid-2017.

“We also observed that prices tended not to change when products changed size, consistent with the idea that some products are undergoing shrinkflation,” the report says.

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In Canada, Charlebois notes that his lab is aware of 25 to 30 major branded products that have shrunk in the last couple of years.

Since manufacturers find the subject to be taboo, “we never really know for sure” what the number is, he adds.

However, shrinkflation is growing as a concept across new food categories.

“We’re seeing shrinkflation impacting categories we’ve never seen before, even produce,” Charlebois says, pointing to strawberries, where container sizes of some brands have shrunk. “We thought that shrinkflation was impacting just a few categories, but now we’ve seen shrinkflation in most categories.”

Strong market leaders within a certain type of food can also lead to a downsizing spiral of the same food by other manufacturers, he notes.

“It’s happening in mac and cheese right now. Kraft mac and cheese went from 225 to 200 grams . . . A lot of packages are still at 225, but in a few months from now most will go down to 200. When a market leader actually makes a move like that, everyone else follows, which is why shrinkflation is a bit of a contagious disease throughout certain aisles. It spreads.”

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The experts suggest that the current shrinkflation cycle is approaching an end, especially as the world somewhat adjusts to the impact on the food chain from the war in Ukraine.

But will we still see new cases of shrinkflation? Unfortunately, the answer is yes because there are always going to be exceptions to the ups and downs of the cycle and because commodity prices around the world can vary widely due to other factors such as weather or labour strife.

“There are probably going to be some exceptions,” says Charlebois. For example, “sugar and cocoa are way up, so you may continue to see some cases related to chocolate for example, or candy.”

Shrinkflation also continues to hit non-food items, ranging from toothpaste and toilet paper to paper towels and pet food.

Why is no one doing anything about shrinkflation?

While many people may talk about shrinkflation, is anyone doing anything about it?

American President Joe Biden called out the practice during his State of the Union speech in March. In Canada, the Department of Innovation, Science and Economic Development is funding four research studies, including one that will “help consumers identify and protect themselves from potentially unfavorable sales practices by grocers . . . . including shrinkflation.”

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The practice, however, isn’t illegal.

“There’s nothing illegal about shrinkflation and frankly it’s not fraud either because everything is disclosed,” says Charlebois. All food packages are clearly marked with the amount of goods inside.

Some consumers have suggested a solution might be packages that include a price per 100 grams or 100 millilitres, so that people can compare costs no matter what size packaging is used. However, changes to packaging are costly and those costs would likely be passed on to the consumers. Sales and markdowns would also negate the usefulness of such pricing on a package.

Meanwhile, another problem related to shrinkflation is its impact on the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which compares the cost of a fixed basket of goods and services over time.

“We’ve been looking at how Statistics Canada has been measuring the impact of shrinkflation on inflation,” says Charlebois.

If the impact of shrinking food products isn’t appropriately calculated into the CPI, a number of policy issues arise, he says. This could mean Canada’s food inflation rate is severely underestimated and if the CPI is underestimated, a number of social programs that assist people in need (and that are based on the CPI) could be underfunded, says Charlebois.

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Statistics Canada says it is addressing the issue. “To account for this in the CPI, the prices collected are adjusted upward to reflect the change in quantity, and the resulting price increase is reflected in the CPI as a pure price change,” StatsCan says on its website.

“My biggest concern about shrinkflation is with policy and CPI, consumer price index . . . and how Statistics Canada is measuring the impact of shrinkflation on the inflation rate itself,” says Charlebois. “They say they do it, but we don’t see any evidence of it.”

At the same time that consumers are dealing with shrinkflation, a host of other “flation” problems have arisen:

• Skimpflation: The practice of a manufacturer using inferior or less expensive ingredients to produce what appears to be the same product.
• Greenflation: It can be defined as the contribution environmental policies have on the cost of delivering goods and services. These costs are passed on through supply chains, ultimately inflating consumer prices. They benefit the environment, but can generate inflationary pressures.
• Climateflation: Linked to climate change, this describes costs that lead to consumer price increases caused by natural disasters and severe weather events, such as drought.
• Fossilflation: This concept reflects the cost of dependency on fossil energy sources, which can vary from day to day.

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How can consumers battle shrinkflation?

Although this current cycle of shrinkflation may be winding down, consumers shouldn’t expect that manufacturers are going to reverse the moves that downsized their products. What you see — in terms of volume in a package — is what you will continue to get in the future.

To deal with this, shrinkflation assailant Edgar Dworsky recommends shoppers become more “net weight conscious.”

“That means before you go the store, note the size of your current packages so you can determine if what’s on store shelves now is still the same,” Dworsky says. “If the product has gotten smaller, consider a brand that hasn’t downsized yet. Store brands tend to be the last to shrink.”

Pay attention to unit pricing, which many stores display on the shelf, he says. “That way you can easily determine which item of the various brands and sizes really is the best deal.”

Food policy expert Sylvain Charlebois also has some general tips to help consumers save a few bucks on grocery bills, starting with the concept of “rescuing food,” which means finding deals on edible food that may be nearing its expiry and thus would otherwise go to waste. Using food rescue apps such as Too Good To Go, Flashfood and Food Hero can result in discounts of 50 per cent or more.

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Another tip is to be a regular at the grocery store, says Charlebois.

“You want to go to the grocery store as often as you can because prices do vary every day,” he says. “The more you go to the grocery store, you will give yourself more opportunities to save as much as possible.”

We know the rising costs of groceries, mortgages, rents and power are important issues for so many Calgarians trying to provide for their families. In our special seriesSqueezed: Navigating Calgary’s high cost of living, we take a deep look into the affordability crisis in Calgary. We’ve crunched numbers, combed through reports and talked to experts to find out how inflation is impacting our city, and what is being done to bring prices back to earth. But, most importantly, we spoke to real families who shared their stories and struggles with us. We hope you will join the conversation as these stories roll out.

This week: Scrimping and Saving: Food Insecurity in Calgary

• ‘You just can’t afford to be a single parent anymore’: Working mom struggles to afford necessities
• ‘My bills keep growing. But my income isn’t’: Senior stretches $35 a week grocery budget
• ‘Guess what folks? Food isn’t getting any cheaper’: Inflation, sadly, is nothing new

Still to come:

• May 27 to 30 – Priced Out: The Rising Cost of Housing
• June 3 to 4: The Cost of Doing Business

Our series so far:

• Feeling the sting of Calgary’s cost of living? Tell us how you’re managing
• Calgary’s affordability advantage slipping away
• Squeezed: Adults remain with their parents, stretching dollars and pooling resources
• Braid: Inflation is pure poison and Liberals continue to fuel it with spending and taxes

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